Nepal's Political Crisis

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CWA # 489, 7 June 2021
Nepal's Political Crisis
Fresh election-call mean unending cycle of instability

  Sourina Bej

The dissolution and the call for election put forth two questions: why is constitutional overstep a continuous trend in Nepal? And what could another election mean amid a pandemic? 

Nepal has quickly descended into yet another constitutional crisis when President Bidhya Devi Bhandari on 22 May dissolved the House of Representatives in less than five months and announced midterm elections on November 12 and 19. While dissolving the House, the President acted again on the Cabinet's recommendation under the caretaker government headed by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. The statement from the President's office reasoned, "both Deuba and Oli faction had claimed support of the majority of lawmakers of the Lower House to form a new government under Article 76(5). But both claims were insufficient as 26 lawmakers of the CPN-UML and 12 lawmakers of the Janata Samajbadi Party had supported both Oli and Deuba." The dissolution and the call for election put forth two questions: why is constitutional overstep a continuous trend in Nepal? And what could another election mean amid a pandemic? 

Constitutional crises as a trend

On 20 December 2020, when Oli had suddenly dissolved the House and called for snap polls the political uncertainties thereon signaled a leader's ambition to clinch onto absolute power. While the opposition parties have attempted to spin a coalition only to be challenged by shifting party allegiances, the office of the President has also failed to check the legislative power and played second fiddle to the Prime Minister. The second dissolution by the President has only weakened these institutions. In the past month, as the opposition failed to stake claim to the government and Oli was reinstated as the Prime Minister despite losing his trust vote on 10 May, the apparent recourse could probably have been to ask the Prime Minister to pass the floor test again or tender resignation or the President seeks a legal reinterpretation of the constitutional laws. 

Dissolution of the House has, no matter, remained a favoured political strategy ever since democracy was restored in 1990. From 1994 to 2002, intra-party rifts and a series of no-confidence motions have led prime ministers like Girija Prasad Koirala, Manmohan Adhikari and even Sher Bahadur Deuba to dissolve the parliaments. The result has been no government has completed its five-year tenure. The 2017 elections did present an opportunity for the tenure to be completed with a strong mandate to Nepal Communist Party (NCP), but it remains short as leaders eclipse institutions/systems. 

Yet another constitutional manoeuvre and Judiciary to the rescue
From one dissolution to another, the lawmakers of the opposition alliance have taken recourse in filing a joint petition at the Supreme Court to reinstate the House. The bench will now have to validate the premature invocation of Article 76(5) of the constitution. It has been of interest to observe that the Judiciary is playing a particularly significant role in interpreting the legislative power struggle and executive decisions to avert a loss of trust with consistent constitutional crises. The current dissolution contradicts the Supreme Court's 23 February verdict that stated, a House can be dissolved only after the government formation process which includes the process wherein if any member of the Parliament presents a ground on which they could obtain the confidence vote, the President should essentially heed to the Parliament and not only the Cabinet. Furthermore, the government formation also came under duress by another verdict by the Supreme Court on 7 March when the NCP was invalidated that broke the coalition between CPN(UML) headed by Oli and CPN (Maoist Centre) headed by 'Prachanda'.  

Regional Madhes parties emerge as game changer
The dissolution has paved the way for another alliance in the making between Oli and the coalition of the Terai regional parties. On 23 May, the Mahantha Thakur-Rajendra Mahato faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party was in talks with Oli, a development that followed after the group had decided to stay neutral and consider forming a leadership of its own. This brings the Terai demands for constitutional amendment and release of jailed comrades at par for dialogue with parties in the Valley. More so, the support by the Madhes parties either to Oli or the opposition alliance of Nepali Congress and Maoist Centre could help one get a majority and a chance a government formation. Prime Minister Oli has reportedly been ready to give eight to 10 ministerial portfolios to the Janata Samajbadi. 

Intra communist party, CPN(UML), heads for a split
With the election call, split into the parties and personality clashes have emerged predominantly. Significant of which has been the split within the CPN(UML) between Oli and Madhav Kumar Nepal. Along with 22 other leaders, Nepal-led faction of the CPN(UML) gave their signatures to a court petition and have backed Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba for prime ministerial post. While Oli has already expelled Nepal and 10 other leaders from the party and sought action against 12, Nepal is preparing to register a party of his own. Switching allegiances and party offices has after all been a political norm while even the 2017 Nepal Communist Party was formed after Prachanda switched allegiance from Deuba to Oli. However, what the election could do is weaken an already divided Communist party in Nepal with more splinter groups representing one leader. 

Citizenship issue as the cornerstone for a new power-sharing deal 
Of particular interest would be how Oli, who has opposed the bill in 2015 and attempted to stem the Madhes agitation, will inch closer to a power-sharing deal to remain in power. Oli has attempted to use the citizenship issues for political gains and President Bidya Bhandari on 23 May promulgated the Nepal Citizenship (first amendment) Ordinance 2021. But, the Madhes parties are not united. While Mahantha Thakur-Rajendra Mahato faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party have potentially tilted towards Oli, the Upendra Yadav faction of the Janata Samajbadi have sided with the Congress-Maoist Centre alliance. 

Today, Nepal confronts a democratization process that has traversed two Jan Andolans only to retain the political culture of elite and the exclusionary politics that has kept away the Terai until now. While corruption runs deep, the ambition to remain in power have made Nepal's political landscape even more competitive. 

About the author

Sourina Bej is a doctoral candidate at the Department of South Asian studies in the University of Bonn.

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